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The Future of the American Economy

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Thinking about the future of the American economy makes my stomach turn.  Between foreign competition from lower-wage nations and the continuing rise of advanced production machinery, it looks like fewer actual people will be needed to make the products that we purchase and use.

It isn’t just factory robots or international competitors that are changing things.  Advanced software, such as computerized logistics systems and inventory control, or online purchasing methods, such as Amazon, have made the employment of in-person servers – humans – less necessary for the functioning of the economy.   But what happens when everyone loses his job to a program or robot?  In this scenario, imagine that every last job could be done by an artificial entity.  How then will people earn money to pay for food and rent?  This will not occur today, or even tomorrow, but one day, sooner than we think, machinery, combined with advanced software, and connected by the internet will be the primary basis for the production and distribution of most of the “stuff” that we buy.

David Brooks looks at the growing bifurcation of the American economy today in his opinion piece in The New York Times.  It appears to me that what Brooks describes  is just the tip of the iceberg.  Eventually, technology will have advanced to the point where it can do work better and more cheaply than by even the most talented person.  What then will we do?

MGD

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Littoral Combat Ship: Hit or Miss?

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The New York Times is running a story today that is interesting, but has left me confused.   Is the Littoral Combat Ship a winner or a dud?  It seems that the Independence class vessel – and there is an entirely separate and brand-new class of ship that will also be doing the same job, the Freedom class – is costly, and one example has developed a leak.  Not a good sign in a boat.  But the Navy promises that the costs will be brought down from $700 million a copy to a mere $400 million.  I suppose that is a Pentagon bargain these days.

I have severe doubts about the concept of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS).  It is supposed to be able to operate close to shore – the littoral – but that seems like an iffy proposition.  The prevalence of cheap antiship missiles and even cheaper mines will make going close to shore an unwise move.  The argument is that the LCS will be well-suited for such missions with its mine-hunting capability.  Let’s hope so.  The LCS may be less expensive than an Arleigh Burke class destroyer with all the electronic bells and whistles, but sailing into an opponent’s “front yard” is hardly a good strategy unless you have already assured command of the sea up to the coastal waters.  Even then, things can get ugly.  The Royal Navy and French Navy both had a tough time of things during the 1915 Gallipoli campaign, and took severe losses from mines alone.  Getting close to the coast without assuring dominance is just not a wise move.

MGD

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Don and Harry go to White Castle

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This week’s episode of Mad Men highlighted certain qualities of the show, now in its fifth season, that exemplify why this is a hit.   Four Emmys are no accident.  But while watching, I could not help thinking that there is a bit of a mystery to Mad Men‘s overwhelming critical success.  All of the cool clothes and unabashed drinking aside, what is it about Mad Men that really impresses?

I have a hard time figuring out why I care about the doings of a group of people who are otherwise unappealing in an objective sense.  Nothing is ever at stake in the show.  Who cares if the agency loses an account?  Do we really expect Don’s latest marriage to Megan to last?  Of course not.

But perhaps that is what sets Mad Men a cut (or two or three) above the rest.  I have ended up caring about Don and his new wife, and I want to know how Betty will handle her benign lump on her thyroid.  I remember the dark days of the eighties, when television truly was a wasteland of idiocy.  That is not true now.   The writing is that good.

And kudos to Matthew Weiner for putting Don and Harry Crane together at a Rolling Stones concert trying in vain to get the band to sing some ridiculous jingle for Heinz.  “Heinz is on My Side” will stick with me for a long time.  Their talk afterwards in the car, with Harry (my least favorite character) gobbling up White Castle burgers is a classic.

MGD

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Power is Power

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Game of Thrones Electric Season Opener

“Power is power,” hisses the icy blonde Queen Cersei to the impudent Petyr “Littlefinger” Baelish in Season Two’s premiere episode.  In other words, “Don’t get any ideas about using your ‘hint’ of incest against me or I’ll cut your throat!”  Things are about to get even tougher on Cersei than the wagging tongue of a smart-mouthed courtier.  Her son, King Joffrey, is unstable and cruel, and does not show much filial piety to her.  He is also the product of incest between Cersei and her brother Jaime Lannister, who is a prisoner of House Stark.  The whole of the North has risen against Joffrey since he beheaded the honorable Eddard Stark, whose son Robb has taken on the title of ‘King of the North.’

Stannis Baratheon, rightful heir to the throne now that Joffrey’s paternity has been made an issue, has raised his own army to support his claim.  In his train is the ominous Melisandre, a priestess of R’hllor who brings her new religion to the shores of Westeros.  She is also a rare thing thus far in Game of Thrones – a person who wields ‘real’ magic.

North of the Wall, Jon Snow and his brothers in the Night’s Watch patrol to discover what is going on.  Mance Rayder, they learn,  is raising an army of wildings to bring against them.

Across the sea, Danaerys Targaryen now has her dragons, but her Dothraki people have no water, and she needs to find a way across the Red Waste, a hostile desert of little appeal.

The War of the Five Kings has started, and everyone is playing for keeps.  All of the dead King Robert’s bastards are coldly put to death by the Lannisters, even an infant, except for one blacksmith boy who escapes with Arya Stark in a cart at the end of the episode.

There is a reason why many think that Game of Thrones is the best show on television.  From its incredible sets to the density of its dialogue, it is far superior to almost any other.   The hour-long episode flew by.   George R. R. Martin has been called the American Tolkien, but this misses the mark.  Game of Thrones is something of a cross between the War of the Roses and The Godfather.   Political intrigue is the true heart of the series, not magic or the other usual tropes of fantasy.  Game of Thrones could just as well be a historical production on a par with The Tudors or The Borgias but for the presence of very limited elements of the fantastic.  I find that I am enjoying the television series more than the novels on which they are based.

MGD

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The Hunger Games Unappetizing Fare

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THE HUNGER GAMES (2012)

Lionsgate // PG-13

142 mins

Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Stanley Tucci, Elizabeth Banks, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz, Woody Harrelson, and dozens of  young actors who get killed midway through the movie

The Hunger Games is a dystopian film in which young Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) volunteers to take part in the dystopian Hunger Games, wherein twenty-four dystopian youngsters compete to the death for the right, I suppose, to say that he or she won the Hunger Games.  It isn’t made clear what the great prize is at the end of the homicidal rainbow, or why the oppressed, dystopian people of the dystopian districts of dystopian nation of Panem (of which there are twelve – Katniss hails from the twelfth) should submit to this squalid, dystopian gladiatorial contest for the amusement of the dystopian, decadent Capitol.

All of this is occurring in what is apparently a dystopian future America, in which the outlying districts send resources to Capitol, which is something of a dystopian D.C. crossed with Thunderdome.   The dystopian “citizens” of Capitol, if they can be graced with the dignity of such a term, are a wretched bunch  (and look as if they have are refugees from pre-revolutionary France dressed in an unholy combination of  Hot Topic and 1980’s Benetton clothing) cheering and squealing in delight at the dystopian murder games played out for their dystopian entertainment.

That a lot of dystopianism to ingest.  Wow, this film is bleak.  What am I to make of it?   Is it an anti-capitalist critique of modern capitalism for the 99%?   A parable for the age of reality television?  A love story?  It is a mixture of all of those things.

Katniss and her fellow male district “tribute,” Peeta Mellark, are sent from their drab, 1930’s Depression-style community in District 12 to the bright and shining Capitol to train (in a mere four days) to fight the twenty-two other selectees, as well as, ultimately, each other, in a high-tech outdoor stadium, watched all along by the millions of denizens of this bizarre nation.  A nice touch is that real color invades the screen only when Katniss departs her gray district town for Capitol, a nod to Dorothy’s wondrous entrance to the Land of Oz, but in this case, something far more sinister.

The youngsters are trained by Haymitch (Woody Harrelson) and their look spruced up by Cinna (Lenny Kravitz), who despite being relatively sympathetic characters, nevertheless do not challenge the basic premise of the Hunger Games, which is that they are revoltingly immoral contests.  Perhaps they feel that they can’t, that they are powerless to alter the Hunger Games, a blood sport whose only purpose, it seems, is to remind the people of future America not to get uppity and rebel.

I have not read the books.  Now, after watching this movie, I don’t want to.  I can’t say that the books are bad, but The Hunger Games did not resonate with me.  I found the premise of two dozen kids killing each other for the amusement of the crowd to be disturbing, and I am not squeamish.  I could stomach Gladiator very well, but that was a far different film.  Also, it is not that The Hunger Games was especially bloody.  That element was rather limited.  No, the premise of the film is not something that I care for – at all.

There were several times during the course of The Hunger Games that I just wished it would end.  It is a very good film, just not one that I enjoyed.  That may seem contradictory, but it isn’t.  I can recognize the quality of the moviemaking.  Director Gary Ross has done a fine job and Jennifer Lawrence is a splendid actress.  Dystopianism is not for me.  I think that in order to really like a science fiction movie or novel, I have to want to “visit” the imaginary world in which it is set.  I would like to visit Middle-earth, Narnia, the Federation from Star Trek, or even the Galactic Empire from Star Wars (only for a short spell) but I don’t have any desire to visit the depressing, frightful Panem with its sordid Hunger Games.

Marc

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Mad Men Premiere Rocks, Men Still Jerks

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Mad Men‘s fifth season premiere, A Little Kiss, lived up to its hype.  There is a reason why this show has won four primetime Emmys.  Every season is like a novel, with each episode a densely written chapter.   The show has been gone for a long time.  We are reintroduced to (almost) all of the characters.  Don Draper (Jon Hamm)  is still married to Megan (Jessica Pare), who throws him a surprise fortieth birthday party.  Don being Don, he can’t accept the party with the graciousness expected by Megan, who proceeds to make him very uncomfortable with a burlesque song and dance routine sung in French.  Really!

Roger (John Slattery) is in fine form, and distributes cash to all and sundry during the episode.  What gives?  Has Roger become so mercenary?   And why is he honing in on all of Pete Campbell’s (Vincent Kartheiser) client meetings?

Joan (Holloway) Harris (Christina Hendricks) is exhausted by her newborn, who also just happens to be Roger’s baby.  It’s a looong story.  Elizabeth Moss is her usual sparkling self as copywriter/working girl/young woman trying to make it in a man’s world Peggy Olson.

Mad Men‘s writers are merely setting the table with the premiere.  It will be a while before we see any conclusions to the storylines now being developed.  But Mad Men, more perhaps than any other show on television today, rewards close and faithful viewing.  Stick with it.  It is already well on its way to a fifth Emmy.

MGD

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Shocking Development – New Pentagon Bomber Looks Set for Massive Cost Overruns

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The Atantic website is running a great article “Why Can’t the Air Force Build an Affordable Plane?” from military correspondent David Axe, who asks why the Air Force is incapable of building an affordable bomber.  This is a very good question, and is something that could be asked about a great many weapons systems now in development for the United States military.   Current bombers, such as the B-1 and B-2, are expensive to buy and costly to operate.  A B-2 “stealth” bomber costs $135,000 per hour to fly.  Even the comparatively cheaper B-1 still costs $65,000 an hour of flight.   Imagine ditching a Ferrari every hour that a B-2 is in the air – you get the picture.

The solution was to build the simpler and cheaper “Long Range Strike Bomber” for $550 million per machine that could be acquired in large numbers.   But as is often the case, a funny thing happened on the way to cheap simplicity.   The technological targets for each new aircraft under development have a way of rising ever higher, until the inexpensive machine first promised is freakishly expensive when it at last rolls out of the factory.   Each new machine is stuffed with ever more advanced and expensive equipment.  The Long Range Strike Bomber may or may not be piloted remotely.  The original vision called for it to be remotely operated so as to keep down costs.  This, however, is easier said than done for an aircraft that is expected to fly in heavily defended environments.  The Air Force brass much prefers a piloted machine.  It may or may not be capable of carrying nuclear weaponry.  If the Air Force later decides that it should be able to carry nukes it will make the bomber more expensive.

All this is occurring in an era when government budgets at the federal, state, and local levels are being cut harshly.   The question this article raises is a good one.  Read the article here:  http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/03/why-cant-the-air-force-build-an-affordable-plane/254998/

MGD

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Ancient Warfare Magazine a Hit

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Ancient Warfare is Dutch-produced, English-language magazine specializing in scholarly articles about the history of war in the ancient world.   I am a longtime reader, and every issue has impressed me with the quality of its articles and the fine artwork included within it.   Each issue focuses on a different aspect of ancient military history, such as the Assyrians or Caesar’s campaigns.

The most recent issue, Vol. V, Issue 6, is quite an achievement.  The theme of this issue is the Hellenistic era’s elite units, such as Antigonid Macedonian hypaspists and the armored cavalry of the Seleucids.  Especially beautiful is the illustration of a Seleucid cataphract at the Battle of Panion in 200 B.C.

Ancient Warfare is available at Barnes & Noble, priced at US $9.99.  A subscription may be obtained at http://www.ancient-warfare.com.

MGD